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2nd Cod War
Víðir Þór Rúnarsson
5 months ago
Víðir Þór Rúnarsson
5 months ago
A non-pro western left-wing government elected in Iceland (Could make threats regarding the US base & Nato-exit more believable.
The US does Not intervene on Iceland’s behalf (but encourages the UK to proceed with caution behind the scenes)
The ICJ rules against the 50-nautical mile extension.
Start of the 2nd Cod War: The unilateral 50-nautical mile extension is confirmed by Parliament with unanimous support
Iceland uses their Wire Cutters for the first time
Iceland cuts nets of 18 British Trawlers (Forces British fishermen to leave Icelandic fishing zones unless under protection. Imposes great costs to UK at low cost to Iceland)
The Icelandic Gov. repeats its threat of leaving NATO (There is not yet unanimous support for that threat within within the left-wing government, let-alone congress) (The British still believe that only the Socialist party is willing to go through with these threats) .
Icelandic Gov. declares their intentions to initiate the six-month revision clause of the US Defense Agreement. Six months after the initiation, Iceland would be free to unilaterally revoke the Defense Agreement (The British still believe that only the Socialist party is willing to go through with these threats)
The British government faces an ultimatum by the trawling industry to offer naval protection, or the trawler fleet vacates the disputed zone, giving Iceland a de-facto victory (Has been contributed to the effectiveness of the wire cutters).
The British Navy first enters the disputed zone. (Puts the Icelandic Gov. under serious pressure to escelate)
15% of the whole population in Iceland protests the Military actions of the UK. (This induces the pro- western leaders of both the Progressive party (government), and the Independence party (largest non- government party) to vocally support the idea of leaving Nato and closing the US Base) .
Iceland initiates the six-months revision process of the US-defense agreement.
The British unsuccessfully appeal to the US for help. (They do this on the premise that only the socialist party actually was willing to go through with the threats on the US base and NATO) .
The whole Icelandic government finally agrees on the Nato threat, and also promise publicly to break off diplomatic relations with Britain, unless the Nimrod flights are cancelled (NATO-exit not officially declared) .
The government officially declares to break diplomatic relations with Britain on October 3rd, if the Navy does not retreat from Icelandic waters. (Following some news captures of clashes at sea).
NATO mediates on Iceland's behalf
The UK agrees to withdraw the Navy (Following mediation by the Secretary General of NATO)
War Ends: Agreement signed that gave Iceland power over its waters, but the UK was allowed to fish 130 tons for 2 years .
The left-wing government attempts negotiations with the UK prior to unilateral extension. However, no unity amongst Icelandic parties. The non-unity and contradicting demands from the Icelandic side confuses the British and makes them doubt the seriousness of the Icelandic cause.
The duration of the 2nd Cod War
Known factors during the Bargaining Period
No precedent of 50-nautical mile extension anywhere in the world at the time.
Iceland could loose it's prospective EEC Trade agreement, which would decrease tariffs on fish exports to European neighbors from Iceland by 50%.
UK has immense economical influence and power over Iceland.
Iceland & the UK realize that the UK cannot exert their economic power due to Cold War politics (This previously failed in the Proto Cod War).
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