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jul 8, 2013 - DEADLINE Analysts Project Big Lone Ranger Loss After Dismal Opening

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Wall Street analysts on Monday updated their predictions for the size of an expected write-down for Disney box-office flop The Lone Ranger and discussed the entertainment conglomerate’s broader stock outlook.

While the Jerry Bruckheimer-produced, Gore Verbinski-directed movie starring Johnny Depp and Armie Hammer brought in less than $50 million during its opening weekend, Disney’s stock closed up 1.4 percent at $64.71 on Monday.

Box-office experts and rival-studio insiders had told The Hollywood Reporter that the loss for the film could approach or even surpass $150 million based on final opening numbers, though they emphasized that Disney likely would weather the storm thanks to summer box office hits Iron Man 3 and Monsters University.

Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Harrigan predicted a write-off in that same range, highlighting that it would come in below the company’s big loss on John Carter last year.

“The Lone Ranger opened to only $48.9 million for the full period, versus the $60 million vicinity that had been expected prior to this week,” he wrote in a report. “Even with some benefit from Johnny Depp overseas, the Jerry Bruckheimer-produced film is now apt to generate a $150 million vicinity write-off for Disney — still less than John Carter‘s $200 million.”

Lazard Capital Markets analyst Barton Crockett in his investor update used the headline “Lonely Ranger” and predicted a possible write-down closer to John Carter’s.

“Many investors had been skeptical about Disney’s Lone Ranger reboot. They were right,” Crockett said. “It was the weekend’s lone misfire, and based on our math, could be pacing for a $190 million write-off.” He had previously predicted a loss of $113 million on the film. That could mean an additional 3 cents per share downside to Disney’s earnings, he said.

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