1 янв 1913 г. - Thomas Edison, "Books will soon be obsolete."

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Thomas Edison, famed inventor and advocate of instructional films, predicted the demise of traditional books due to the popularity of instructional film. Edison hypothesized: "Books will soon be obsolete in the schools . . . . It is possible to teach every branch of human knowledge with the motion picture. Our school system will be changed within the next ten years" (Reiser: "Part I," 2001, pg. 55). This prediction was incorrect, as books are still used to this day as a primary instructional method. However, Edison's prediction was the first of many, and started a trend of incorrectly overestimating the impact of technology in education.

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